The Contribution of the Emerging World

Moreover, the contribution of the emerging world will not be negligible at this time the start of the global economic recovery. BRICs countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China, may become no less contributors to overall economic growth in 2010. The market expects these economies as a whole achieved a growth of 7.5% for this year. In the case of China, the official index of purchasing managers (PMI for its acronym in English) reached 55.1 points in March from 52 observed in February, beating the average of 54.5 expected by the market. Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, said on the subject: “Another figure substantially higher in the main PMI, combined with a strong rise in exports, pointing to an acceleration in industrial production growth and possibly over 11% of GDP in the first quarter. ”

Qu Hongbin, while showing their expectations for strong economic growth, did not conceal its concern about inflationary pressures emerging from the strong dynamism of aggregate demand in China: “With inflationary pressures building up rapidly, this increases the risk of rising interest rates in coming months. ” Will it take this situation in China decides once and for all, to let its currency appreciate? It appears that you have less room to avoid currency appreciation that in one way another, through the nominal exchange rate or real, occur. This appreciation of the Chinese real exchange rate, will have positive consequences for the rest of the world economy, which can provide (at least a little), the acceleration of global economic recovery.